How and why Michael Beale emerged as the surprise frontrunner for Sunderland's head coach vacancy

Sunderland’s search for a new head coach is nearly at an end and the final destination is, well, not quite what anyone had expected.

If all proceeds as expected then the former Rangers and QPR boss Michael Beale who will be named as Tony Mowbray’s successor. Interim head coach Mike Dodds will lead the team at Bristol City but there is every chance that Beale will be watching in the stands and the widespread expectation at this stage is that he will then start work next week. 

The reaction on Wearside has been one of surprise, to perhaps put it delicately. Beale had barely been considered by most supporters until his name began to surge up the bookmakers’ odds lists on Thursday afternoon. So how and why did he become the frontrunner for the vacancy?

The starting point is to understand why Mowbray left, and what it meant for what followed. Though Mowbray’s departure came at the end of a frustrating week of results, performances were not necessarily the primary reason for his sacking. Sunderland are a data and ‘evidence led’ operation and by just about any performance metric, Mowbray’s side were one of the best in the division. Mowbray left because relationships behind the scenes had broken down to the point where his position was deemed untenable by the club’s ownership, and even he himself was beginning to feel the same way towards the end. 

Results were not mentioned once in the statement confirming his departure, with Kyril Louis-Dreyfus (who has been the primary driver of these recent significant changes) instead speaking of a ‘relentless demand for a high performance culture’. There had developed a fundamental disconnect between how he wanted the club to operate and as such, rifts were widening. After the week in which that seemed to visibly spill over, Louis-Dreyfus acted.

So when Mowbray departed, there was no successor lined up. Instead the club began its recruitment process, sounding out a large number of candidates who they had identified as potential options. Some of those were in work, some of them weren’t. 

Given that his process had seemingly started when Francesco Farioli was linked with the role back in April, the expectation was that Sunderland would look abroad. To secure a candidate who tracked well on their analysis, who could communicate with a rapidly changing dressing room and who would fit neatly into Louis-Dreyfus’ way of working.

Reims’ head coach Will Still was the name most often mentioned with the vacancy and on paper, he appeared a perfect fit. Almost from the off, however, sources in the game indicated that the deal would be immensely difficult to do. His contractual status at Reims was complex and there was no easy way of extracting him, even if he ultimately had decided the challenge was the right one. That, too, was never quite clear.

Still was far from the only candidate Sunderland considered but by the time he was going on the front foot in a Reims pre-match press conference on Thursday, downplaying the exit rumours and stressing his immediate commitment to the club, the noise around Beale was beginning to intensify.

By now it was clear that Sunderland would not be extracting a candidate from another job, whether that be Still or any of the other options they had identified. There is no getting around the fact that this is a source of bitter disappointment to many supporters, many of whom had begrudgingly accepted the departure of Mowbray because they expected it to lead to Sunderland making an ambitious move as part of a longer-term strategy. When Mowbray left, there was disappointment but in some corners acceptance that it meant Louis-Dreyfus and Speakman would go and land the candidate they had long been scouting.

So why Beale? Primarily because he is seen to be an outstanding coach, and this was why he was part of the interview process. Louis-Dreyfus and the hierarchy would argue that for what they were looking for and to change, he ticked many of the boxes. It was his training-ground work and player development that first brought him to the attention of Steven Gerrard, with Beale a key part of his success at Rangers and then initially at Aston Villa. Beale also has a track record in youth development from his time rising through the ranks at Liverpool, which is very obviously a pre-requisite for the job on Wearside in its current guise.

Though Beale’s own spell as Rangers manager was ultimately unsuccessful, he was operating in a very different structure and Sunderland believe that this role will allow him to focus on what he does best, coaching and tactical detail. If, as many onlookers north of the border believe, recruitment was a major issue then on Wearside that will clearly not be the case.

Sunderland’s hierarchy also believe, and this is clearly crucial when you reflect on Louis-Dreyfus’ comments surrounding Mowbray’s departure, that he will bring quality to the Academy of Light operation as a result of his spells at Chelsea and Liverpool. He also started very brightly at QPR with an attacking playing style that got the best out of the squad’s most technical players, which should raise hope that this could be a neat transition. That early work at QPR, and his reputation in the game as one of best coaches around, almost brought him to the Premier League and Wolves. That, it should be said, wasn’t too far off only a year ago.

There will have been a temptation to hand Mike Dodds a longer spell at the helm given the regard in which he is held behind the scenes and the impact he has had in the last two games, but ultimately it was felt that this time was probably too soon and on Thursday, he himself hinted that he felt that was probably the case. Part of the reason why Sunderland have moved for Beale is that he will integrate into the current coaching set up, which the club rate very highly and believe has been a key part of the success of the last two years. Dodds will have an integral role moving forward, and may well emerge as a strong contender for the main role somewhere down the line. His role at the heart of the new management team should again, in theory, help the team roll forward without undue disruption.

That Louis-Dreyfus and the club hierarchy ultimately decided to move on from such a popular head coach, one who was delivering clear results on the pitch for the most part, made this next move an obvious gamble. The reaction of supporters up to this point shows that both Beale and the club have work to do to demonstrate that it does indeed represent an upgrade. The club may well counter that neither Mowbray nor Alex Neil before him were universally well received upon their appointment. 

Ultimately it is borne of their belief that they needed a better fit for their structure and way of working, at the Academy of Light in particular, to maximise results in the long run. Only time will tell whether that proves to be the case. This was not the development Sunderland fans were expecting when making their peace with Mowbray’s departure, and that most certainly raises the stakes in the weeks and months ahead.

Sunderland, for their part, believe they settled on a candidate who can continue the progress of recent months and years and add value to it.