The four key factors in Sunderland's alarming slump - and what they can change to fix it

Sunderland’s season has unravelled in recent weeks, with six defeats in a row leaving the team as close to the relegation zone as the top six.

So what’s gone wrong, and what can be done to improve the situation in the short term but more importantly, moving into next season? Here, we take a closer look…

INJURIES 

Sunderland have had rotten luck with injuries and Mike Dodds in particular can point to it as a significant mitigating factor in recent weeks. For the last four fixtures he has been unable to call on his two first-choice wingers and at least one of his established central defenders. Sunderland’s two first-choice left backs have been missing for the vast majority of the campaign, one of their best players in the first half of the season since Christmas and they could face QPR this weekend with Leo Hjelde as their only fit centre-half.

Sunderland fielded the youngest starting XI in recent Championship history last Saturday, and it’s a huge ask for them in that scenario to go up against teams bolstered by parachute payments, as has been the case over the last week or so. 

Of course, Sunderland’s slide had started to set in even before the most recent spate of injuries and so they can only be blamed up to a point.

How can Sunderland fix it?

Dodds will feel he needs just a bit of luck as he tries to turn a dismal run of form around, but at the moment his selection issues are growing rather than easing. Injuries are part and parcel of the game and especially in a schedule as intense as the Championship, though the club will no doubt want to reflect on if there’s anything they could have done differently given the scale of the issues at the moment. It does undoubtedly underline that to succeed, you do need luck on your side.

SQUAD DEPTH 

One issue that the injuries have underlined is that the squad depth this season isn’t sufficient to maintain a top-six push. Of the players to have arrived since the end of last season, only Jobe Bellingham has been to establish himself in the side. 

A number of players have needed a period of adaptation to adjust to the rigours of the Championship, meaning that there has been a big dip in consistency when some of those more established players have been absent. Some of the players brought in look as if they could go on to have excellent careers in time, but this season the balance between experience and promise has been too great. In recent weeks in particular, it has had a significantly adverse impact on Sunderland’s play-of prospects. 

How can Sunderland fix it?

Few would wish for Sunderland to abandon the policy that produced one of the most dynamic and enjoyable to watch teams many can remember. Having the ability both to sign and keep the best young players also means giving them opportunities to play regularly. 

It’s interesting to go back and look at the side that won promotion from League One, however, as by the end of the campaign the core of the side was increasingly experienced. If Jack Clarke leaves this summer as now looks fairly likely, then there is a strong argument for trying to recruit at least a small number of players who are ready to hit the ground running at Championship level. Whether it be Kristjaan Speakman or Kyril Louis-Dreyfus or both, there will need to be some reflection on why the team has ultimately not been able to progress this season and primarily, that is because the recruitment over the last two windows has not up until this point paid off. 

GOALSCORING ISSUES 

Arguably Sunderland’s biggest issue through the first half of the season, and the catalyst for Tony Mowbray’s eventual departure, was the consistent failure to turn dominance of games into goals. All of the underlying data suggested that Sunderland were one of the best top six or eight teams in the division, but their inability to score regularly (outside of Jack Clarke) meant the results did not always reflect the performance.

Sunderland faced a very unenviable task in trying to replace Ross Stewart and Amad - even if the former was injured for most of the previous campaign his goal contributions were crucial in the club’s eventual points tally. That their budget remains significantly smaller than many of their promotion rivals means they had to focus on trying to identify younger players or forwards from markets where the fees and wages are lower. While the age and inexperience of Luis Hemir and Eliezer Mayenda mean it’s far too soon to pass definitive judgement on their Sunderland careers, the season-long loan for Mason Burstow has not worked out for any party. Nazariy Rusyn has shown promise at times, but the language barrier and understandable challenges of making such a big move from Ukraine have meant that his performances have been inconsistent. There is also a fair argument to be made that his long-term future may be more in the wide position. 

Of late, Sunderland’s attacking play has struggled to yield chances but for much of the first half of the season that wasn’t the case. It was the issue that more than anything prevented Sunderland’s progress, and the chance to put it right in the January window was then missed. 

How can Sunderland fix it?

Sunderland’s current options may well be better for their first campaign next time around, but it’s a position the club will simply have to revisit in the summer window. If there is a significant player sale and the budget does grow, can some of that funds be used to find a more established player - whether it be on a permanent deal or even a loan? This remains a very talented squad but it needs more cutting edge.

MANAGERIAL CHANGE 

Would Mowbray have been able to keep Sunderland’s play-off hopes alive given the list of current absentees? Probably not, but the decision to replace him has not aged well regardless of some of the issues around the time of his departure. Sunderland found themselves unable to land one of their preferred candidates mid-season and Michael Beale proved a bad choice both on and off the pitch. Not only did the change fail to address Sunderland’s ongoing issues in the final third, it actually made them a less threatening side and with little defensive improvement to offset it. Mowbray’s skills as a communicator and motivator have also become more obvious in his absence. 

How can Sunderland fix it?

Sunderland’s trajectory since Mowbray’s departure, and the ultimately flawed process to replace him, have been hugely damaging for the reputation of an operation that prides itself on being ‘evidence led’. The decline in the second half of the season should be the source of a significant review in terms of the decision-making process. We wrote about this in a lengthy column last month, which you can read here. 

The upcoming head coach appointment is an absolutely vital one, not just in assuring supporters of the club’s ambition but in showing there is a plan in place to drive forward. 

And while not a direct impact on results on the pitch, there remains more broadly a significant amount of work to be done in rebuilding the relationship with supporters that is still damaged by the FA Cup derby fiasco and the general off-field issues in key areas.